Update: the match finished Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City. Read the full Liverpool vs Manchester City Match Report: 0-3 for scorers, lineups and stats.
Our Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction starts with the table: City are top of the Premier League with five wins from five, while Liverpool are sixth and unbeaten but without a home win. The game kicks off at Anfield at 4:30pm Irish time on Sunday 11 October. This preview covers form, home and away records, head-to-head history and the data-based percentages from API-Football. All figures were pulled on 10 October 2026, and none of them is a promise of any result. Our Premier League predictions and odds hub has the wider picture for the weekend.
What is the Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction?
API-Football’s data model gives Manchester City a 45% chance, the draw 45% and Liverpool 10%, and it names City as the likely winner. These percentages are a statistical estimate built from form, attack and defence ratings and head-to-head records, so treat them as one input rather than a forecast. However, the draw figure matches City’s, so the model does not separate a City win from a draw on its own numbers.
The comparison figures lean City’s way on most measures. Form is 63% to 38% and attack is 65% to 35%, while the Poisson goal model gives City 85% to Liverpool’s 15%. On the other hand, the model rates Liverpool’s defence higher, at 56% to 44%. In other words, the data sees City as the stronger attacking side and Liverpool as the tighter one at the back. You can see how our own data-based picks have fared on the predictions track record page.
Where do Liverpool and Manchester City sit in the table?
Manchester City lead the table on 15 points from five games, with five wins, 13 goals scored and five conceded for a goal difference of +8. Liverpool are sixth on 9 points from five, with two wins and three draws, seven scored and four conceded, so their goal difference is +3. As a result, there is a six-point gap, which is large this early in the season.
Because Liverpool have not lost, the table flatters City a little in one respect: the gap comes from draws rather than defeats. Meanwhile, City have kept two clean sheets in five, against Coventry and Manchester United, and Liverpool have kept three, at Ipswich, at Bournemouth and in the goalless draw with Fulham. In addition, that is why the defence comparison in the data is closer than the points suggest.
How do the home and away records compare?
Liverpool have played two league games at Anfield this season and have not won either. Meanwhile, they drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest on 29 August and 0-0 with Fulham on 12 September, scoring two and conceding two. Away from home they have done better, drawing 2-2 at Newcastle on 23 August, winning 2-0 at Ipswich on 4 September and winning 1-0 at Bournemouth on 20 September.
Manchester City have won all five, three at home and two away. At the Etihad they beat Bournemouth 2-1, Coventry 1-0 and Sunderland 5-3, scoring eight and conceding four. On the road they won 4-1 at Crystal Palace on 28 August and 1-0 at Manchester United on 13 September, so they arrive with a perfect record in both settings. That said, they have conceded in three of their five games, including three against Sunderland, so the back line has been tested.
What does the head-to-head record say?
Manchester City have won the last three meetings between the sides. Also, they beat Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup on 4 April 2026, won 2-1 at Anfield in the league on 8 February 2026 and won 3-0 at home on 9 November 2025. Going back further, Liverpool won 2-0 at the Etihad on 23 February 2025 and 2-0 at Anfield on 1 December 2024, and the sides drew 1-1 at Anfield on 10 March 2024.
Over the last six games, City have won three, Liverpool two and one was drawn, with City scoring 10 goals to Liverpool’s six. However, the older results show how quickly the balance can swing, because Liverpool won both league meetings in the 2024-25 season. So the recent run favours City, but it is a weaker guide than the current form of both teams.
What could decide Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Liverpool’s results this season, oldest first, read D-D-W-D-W: a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, a 2-2 draw with Forest, a 2-0 win at Ipswich, a goalless draw with Fulham and a 1-0 win at Bournemouth. City read W-W-W-W-W, with the 5-3 win over Sunderland on 20 September the most recent. Because City conceded three against Sunderland and Liverpool have scored three goals in their last three games, the goals market is a fair question.
We have not included injury or suspension information, since we did not verify any for this game, so check the clubs’ official channels before kick-off. For the result as it happens, our live scores page tracks the game.
What else should punters know about Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The quick answers below cover the basics. In addition, you can read our other Premier League previews for this weekend: Manchester United vs Tottenham and Arsenal vs Leeds.
When is Liverpool vs Manchester City?
The Premier League match kicks off at 4:30pm Irish time on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Where is Liverpool vs Manchester City played?
It is a home game for Liverpool at Anfield in Liverpool.
What does the data say about Liverpool vs Manchester City?
API-Football’s model gives Liverpool 10%, a draw 45% and Manchester City 45%. It is a statistical estimate, not a promise of any result.
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