Our Roma vs Real Madrid prediction covers a Champions League meeting that has not happened in the competition since 2018. Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1 on matchday one, while Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe. Also, the league-stage game kicks off at the Stadio Olimpico at 8pm Irish time on Wednesday 14 October. This preview covers the table, five past meetings and the data-based percentages from API-Football. All figures were pulled on 13 October 2026, and none of them is a promise of any result. Roma also face Manchester United in the competition next month, so our Premier League predictions and odds hub is worth a look too.
What is the Roma vs Real Madrid prediction?
API-Football’s data model gives Roma a 10% chance, the draw 45% and Real Madrid 45%. Its advice is a double chance of a draw or a Real Madrid win. These percentages are a statistical estimate built from form, attack and defence ratings and goal models, so they are one input rather than a forecast, and the draw figure matches Real Madrid’s, so the model does not separate a Real win from a draw.
The comparison figures favour the visitors. Real Madrid lead on form at 75% to 25%, on attack at 67% to 33%, on head-to-head at 100% to 0% and on goals at 92% to 8%. Defence is level at 50% each. As a result, the combined total is 71% for Real Madrid and 29% for Roma. You can see how our own data-based picks have fared on the predictions track record page.
Where do Roma and Real Madrid sit in the Champions League table?
Real Madrid are 14th with 3 points from one game and a goal difference of +1, after the 2-1 home win over Inter on 8 September. API-Football marks places nine to 24 as play-off places, so Real are inside that band at this early stage.
Roma are 17th with 1 point and a goal difference of zero, since they drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe on 10 September. They are also inside the play-off places. Therefore the table is tight, and one result could move either side several places.
What does the head-to-head record say?
API-Football lists five meetings, and Real Madrid won all five. Four were in the Champions League and one was a friendly in the International Champions Cup. In February and March 2016, Real won 2-0 in Rome and then 2-0 at home.
In September and November 2018, Real won 3-0 at home and 2-0 in Rome. The friendly, on 8 August 2018, finished 2-1 to Real. Across the five games Roma scored once, and that was in the friendly. However, these results are at least eight years old and the squads are not the same, so they give flavour rather than a forecast.
What do we know about each side’s season?
The only verified results we pulled for this preview are the opening Champions League games. Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1, and Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe. We have not pulled either club’s domestic record, so we have not commented on league form.
That said, the data’s own form comparison, 75% to 25% in Real’s favour, suggests the Spanish side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid also play Arsenal on 9 December and RB Leipzig on 21 October in this competition. Meanwhile Roma host Slovan Bratislava on 20 October, then travel to Manchester United on 3 November.
What could decide Roma vs Real Madrid?
The data points to a game where Real’s attack and goal record carry the numbers. Goal lines in the data list fewer than 1.5 goals for Roma and fewer than 2.5 for Real Madrid. Therefore the model expects a low-scoring game, although one fixture each is a thin basis for that view.
We have not included injury or suspension information, since we did not verify any for this game, so check the clubs’ official channels before kick-off. For the result as it happens, our live scores page tracks the game.
What else should punters know about AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The quick answers below cover the basics. You can also read our Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction and our Lask Linz vs Liverpool prediction and our Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce prediction for more from the same Champions League round.
When is Roma vs Real Madrid?
The Champions League league-stage match kicks off at 8pm Irish time on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Where is Roma vs Real Madrid played?
It is a home game for Roma at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
What does the data say about Roma vs Real Madrid?
API-Football’s model gives Roma 10%, a draw 45% and Real Madrid 45%, with advice of a draw or a Real Madrid win. It is a statistical estimate, not a promise of any result.
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